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Part 1. The phenomenon of inflation

Inflation has a dual nature and origin of the dual form of the manifestations and measurement. Diverse understanding and variegated view of inflation, as well as derivatives of this term requires a unification of its measurement. Without going into an in-depth understanding of the nature of inflation, its causes and various speculative paradigm, it must consider its interpretation of the concept and measurement as an independent phenomenon.

Major shift

Water measurement of inflation - a rise in prices. However, in reality, not all inflation - a rise in prices. And not just in prices - inflation. In another system of measurement - it is the depreciation of money, flood, or swelling of money circulation, the extra money, derivatives, fictitious capital, "bubbles", the default, in general, every excess of the quantity of money over the amount of goods.

Inflation - this revaluation, rising unemployment, budget deficits, the militarization of the economy and the dominance of monopolies, and the imbalance of reproduction. Differently understood as neinflyatsiya and its factors, inflation, deflation is not yet, deflation, devaluation, and their factors, non-inflationary and non-monetary reasons for the growth of costs and prices, supply and demand.

View of the dual nature of origin, the variety of symptoms and forms of measurement of inflation and its factors can not be easy. In what context is perceived and measured inflation in Russia today, in what she meets and does not comply with existing standards

Observation and recording of inflation we have carried out in accordance with Russian law. According to the Russian Statistics Committee, inflation in Russia in 2003, officially defined at 12%. Against the backdrop of 2002 (15.1%), 2001 (18.6%), 2000 (20.2%) and 1999 (36%) - is a major positive shift in the economy and life of contemporary Russia. Expected inflation rate this year - 10%, is regarded as a new frontier of positive transformations in our country. Note that the current global inflationary background is 6.2% in developed countries - 1.7%.

In theory and in reality

In monetary economics, which try to equate the Russian economy and that it is not because of their poverty and scarcity, it all comes down to the curb first, and then decrease in the level, and then completely to suppress inflation, that is, to stabilize the exchange rate on the basis of balanced growth in prices and cash flows. The equilibrium inflation in the monetary environment - is synonymous with an efficient economy, a symbol for success, the only necessary and sufficient to light. Such is the case in the theory, intentions and declarations, such monetary inflation morality.

In fact, inflation with morality is not at odds. It grows in the world and in Russia. Cause, encourage her, do not disappear, the demand for it at least in part, and reduced but not stopped.

Why Is not it because that inflation - is not only and not an indicator of monetary success (or failure), but also a powerful tool of economic manipulation concealed hourly and every minute of property redistribution essence of this redistribution is always and everywhere one and the same increase in wage fees and other income in advance of their removal through the external supposedly democratic prices. The growth of prices under the influence of monetary, objectively determined factors did not differ, but rather with the intent obscured.

To produce inflation, it would be easier to fix while at the same mark of wages and prices. Then the wage, its level and its growth would be a direct function of performance (and ultimately - a function of supply growth), and the prices and amount - a direct function of the growth of objectively determined value of manufactured goods, services and capital (in the end - a function of growth demand).

As a consequence, then the mass of money in circulation - given, of course, the velocity of circulation - is always and everywhere would be equal to the sum of the prices of goods, services and capital, are in circulation. The value of all financial obligations would be consistent with the physical volume of all types of real assets (goods, services and capital), cash assets - balance sheet liabilities, accounts payable - the total receivables, the demand - supply and supply - demand.

Secret manipulation

However

fix wages and prices at the same level for the monetarists of all stripes, in principle, unacceptable. Unacceptable not because it is a mistake, or impossible, but because someone is unprofitable. In this formula exactly and placed regulatory mechanism of inflation, ignoring it - the secret manipulation. And the inflation is higher, the strength and extent of manipulation more equal and vice versa.

Word, in terms of monetary speculation, on strict legal language qualified as fraud, everywhere exploited walking truism wages have to increase because of rising prices, while prices are rising because the unions demand, and employers are forced to raise wages.

However, not every increase in price or wage growth - is inflation, not any inflation - is the growth of wages or prices.

Of course, the salary (in the broader sense - income, payment obligations or liabilities) and, consequently, a lot of money in circulation should be improved. But not because not because of the fact that the alleged price increases. And more so, not because it is required by the trade unions. Because based on innovation, technological progress, skills, etc. increasing productivity and quality of products (if they fall, it is clear, wages and prices should be lower).

Accordingly, the prices should not increase because of growth of nominal wages, but because they actually increase non-inflationary factors affecting this growth, for example, demand, production costs or quality of products.

There are, of course, and many other combinations are presented in a general way as cases of so-called non-inflationary growth in wages and prices. The mechanism of this growth, we do not consider here. We only note that it is not simple and varies in different modes. Take, for example, the simplest case - a price change under the influence of demand. There is no need to explain why an increasing demand prices are rising, and with a decrease in fall, but there is a need to understand why the price increases the demand increases (not decreases), and their decline - reduced (not increased). Among the economic explanations are not enough. In monetary terms, and psychological factors are important - gregarious, panic, excitement, conspiracy, etc. Derived from case to case reversals in prices, in particular exchange (often in collusion main agents) bring a lot instead of the expected benefits of huge losses and disappointments. Other non-inflationary factors, and even harder to go back to the analysis of the initial foundations for economic growth. Unfortunately, such a fundamental understanding of inflation in the past have not been properly investigated. Attention was paid (and continues today to accentuate) for fixing the external manifestations of inflation, secondary to the primary causes and factors of its generating and explaining.

40 times cheaper

What does the rise of wages in the non-inflationary regime should be whether in this case to raise prices and that means higher prices at the expense of product quality, which, in principle, supports a different expression of the growth of its number should be whether in this case raise wages above the adjusted for increases in productivity Obviously not. In contrast, prices in this case should fall. Decrease in inverse proportion to the growth of labor productivity. Indeed, productivity growth - a reduction, rather than higher prices. In fact, prices in terms of productivity growth (wider - efficiency) increases. Evidence that you like, the whole experience of post-war more than a hundredfold increase in consumer prices in almost all countries around the world (Table 1).

Set out in the context of prices, by definition, would not have to grow. On the contrary, they are one of the witnesses the effect of technological progress, the alpha and omega which is to improve life in the form of cheaper unit cost of production would have to in these conditions cool down. On the example given in the data table feel, whatever it might turn out for the average consumer.

Imagine that today you could buy everything that is sold in 5.7 times cheaper, and in all countries taken together, at least 40.6 times less, ie, respectively 17.5 and 2.5 per cent of that paid in 1970 ! They say so is not increased prices, and quality. In the developed countries of 5.7 times over 30 years, while the average worldwide - more than 40 times! In developing countries - generally about 1500 times cheaper. Evidence of growth in the quality of such monstrous scale can hardly be found anywhere else! And because the formula of technological progress as a benefit, enhance and facilitate a person's life, nowhere in any country in the past have not worked. It turns out that technological advances decided (apparently, continues to address today) in the life of other people, rather virtual than the declared real problem.

Work here is a clear alternative or a rise in prices - then there is no technological progress, there is no effective economic or technical progress based on efficient economy - then there is no inflationary price increases. Otherwise, as they say, is not given. Combinations such as prices rise, because the alleged salary increases even faster (which, incidentally, is not observed in reality) do not find a practical confirmation of nowhere. It is therefore formulated an alternative to true. In this - the second case of manipulation of prices, wages and inflation (inflation of) money. As a result, and in the (mostly inflation) and other (additional, non-inflationary) case price, and consequently, the amount of cost of goods, services and capital, grow faster than their physical size. As a result - inflation of currency, the appearance of excessive or surrogate money (derivatives), that is inflation. This is equivalent to selling two tickets for one seat, causing shortages, rampant various manipulations.

However, in a similar way would be considered and adjusted accordingly, taking into account inflation, tax increases, raising bank interest rates, rising unemployment and other indicators of a market economy.

Transparency in this mechanism is not

In essence, it is with this kind of processes continues to be the case and the current inflation rate. Interpretation of inflation as a phenomenon of the split, the expansion of its constituents, including related but not identical price increases, measuring it in the light of the devaluation and revaluation of the currency continues to remain on the sidelines. Hence, the ongoing process of manipulating inflation, its use for selfish, and sometimes fraudulent. The mechanism of manipulation of inflation, by definition, class, and therefore always and everywhere sham and hidden. Transparency, a clear separation in the mechanism of inflation and non-inflationary factors, splitting them into components, an objective assessment of the impact on the overall process are almost there.

Is there a need for such a mechanism in conditions of poor and scarce economy, which is still many years and, unfortunately, will remain our economy Judging by the high rates of inflation, the answer can only be yes, unfortunately, there is.

Part 2. Measuring Inflation

Strictly speaking, inflation - is reducing the cost of currency, understood as their exchange and accounting (quotation). In plain language - a depreciation of money due to rising prices, a soap-bubble "(with lat. Inflatio -« bloating "). Antipode of inflation - deflation is an increase equivalent to the maintenance of exchange, increase their rate. In the case of inflation, we have increased the amount of money per lot traded goods, services and capital, while deflation - reducing the amount of money on the same lot of goods.

Characteristic for Russia

In the case of conversion of money (currency) inflation and deflation can be accompanied by a devaluation or revaluation. Devaluation is to be understood as the depreciation of the currency (in whole or in the part that is exposed to the conversion), and revaluation - as the currency appreciation in the same sense and amount.

Usually processes inflation is sometimes wrong, as the rise in prices. Meanwhile, inflation is not identical to the rise in prices, as well as deflation - to reduce them. Equating to an increase in inflation in prices leads to an overestimation of its modulus as compared to the actual value, exaggerate the volume of inflation and further up the chain - an overestimation of mintage, artificially inflate the cash flow and as a consequence, the emergence of a new round of more inflation.

Situation is aggravated, and the scale of inflation, expanded in terms of currency devaluation, which requires a dual analysis. For Russia, this case was typical throughout the reform 1991-2002. until the beginning of last year. In the case of inflation, accompanied by a revaluation, which is characteristic of Russia in 2003, the situation is smoothed, and the differences in the modules of inflation and price increases reduced.

Clearly, the lower the inflation rate and the rate of price growth, the differences in the modules will be less than what follows from the magnitudes of direct and reverse numbers. Nevertheless, these differences in the estimates will occur in any combination, except the sole - when inflation modules and price changes are zero.

Repeat that inflation in Russia is equal and is represented as rising prices, which is wrong. In addition, inflation is defined and considered in isolation from the devaluation (since 2003 - revaluation) of the ruble, which further distorts the idea of ​​its size. This raises the need to adjust the published estimates of inflation.

Seven Steps

Leaving aside questions of methodology of calculations when measuring consumer prices as input data for calculating price indices and inflation indexes, the following step by step techniques show multidirectional adjustment of the published estimates of inflation in Russia, taking into account depreciation (case 2000) and the revaluation of the ruble (the case of 2003 city).

Step 1 . Identify the consumer price index, assuming that it is calculated at one and the same methodology, covering the same range of indicators and the same representative set of prices for goods, services and capital.

Index of consumer prices in Russia in 2000, according to the Russian Statistics Committee, amounted to 120.2% (an increase of 20.2%) in 2003 - 112.0% (an increase of 12.0%). Inflation in Russia, as noted, is identified with the increase in consumer prices and, therefore, recorded in the same values.

Step 2: . Qualify adopted by the identification of inflation as unacceptable and reformulate the scheme for its calculation. By the same comparable range of components and a set of representative prices for goods and services is estimated inflation rate as the inverse of the consumer price index.

Course, all payments must begin by defining the group and aggregated consumer price index and only then, on this basis must be calculated the overall consumer price index. Then the general rate of inflation (with possible rounding) in 2000 was 0.833 (1.0/1.202), and in 2003 - 0.893 (1.0/1.12). Hence, we conclude that inflation ("bloating" of the ruble devaluation of money) in 2000 was in Russia 20.2% and 16.7%, and in 2003, not 12.0% and 10.7%.

Difference in the estimates is significant and can not be ignored as a small quantity, in particular, when deciding on the amount of additional money issue. For example, if existed in 2003 in Russia, the volume of cash turnover exceeding 5.0 trillion. rub. ($ 175.4 billion), which means the emission of more than 65.0 billion rubles., Or $ 2.3 billion, the extra money.

Step 3. Determines the index of devaluation (2000) and revaluation (2003) Ruble, receiving, respectively: 1.043 (28.16 RUR / USD.: 27.00 rubles to the dollar.) In 2000; 0.927 (29.45 RUR / USD.: 31.78 rubles to the dollar.) in 2003

Fix the ruble against the U.S. dollar in 2000 depreciated by 4.3%, and in 2003 rose in value by 7.3%.

Step 4 . We find that the inflation index, taking into account the devaluation of the ruble in 2000 and the revaluation in 2003, assuming all the mass of ruble.

Accordingly, for 2000 we have 0.799 (0.833: ​​1.043), and for 2003 - 0.963 (0.893: 0.927). We fix that real inflation in 2000, taking into account the devaluation of the ruble was 20.1%, not 16.7%, and in 2003 - just 3.7% instead of 10.7%, as follows from the formal to calculate it without a real devaluation.

Step 5. Given the excessive assumptions about possible devaluation (in 2000) and revaluation (in 2003) the entire mass of the ruble, and assuming that under the influence of these processes in Russia, there were approximately 15% of the total mass of the ruble, we find that the inflation index to view of the limited devaluation and revaluation of the ruble. For 2000 we have: (0.833 x 0.85) + (0.799 x 0.15) = 0.828. And for 2003: (0.893 x 0.85) + (0.963 x 0.15) = 0.904.

Based on the estimates finally fix that Recorded real inflation in the country in 2000 was as follows: (1.000 - 0.828) x 100 = 17.2%, not 20.2%. Accordingly, in 2003: (1.000 - 0.904) x 100 = 9.6%, not 12%, as it is officially announced.

Step 6. defines the growth in prices in 2000 to 20% in 2003 - up 12%. If Russia in 2000, inflation rose by 20%, then, subject to the considerations (ie, taking into account the partial or complete devaluation of the ruble mass), the estimated increase in consumer prices was not 20% as it is, in Apparently, there was in fact and appeared in everyday life, and 25% (the exact figure is 25.3%), as follows from the logic of the account of inverse numbers (1.0: 0.8), and all 30% or more (the exact figure is 30.6%). The maximum: 1.25 x 1.0415 = 1.306, where 1.045 = 1.0: 0,957, and 0.957 = 1.0 - 0.043.

The corresponding figure for the minimum, with a limited share of ruble supply in the currency circulation of 15%: 1.25 x 0.85 + 1.045 x 0.15 = 1.219. That is, in this case, the total price increase would amount to in 2000, not 20.2% and 21.9%.

The same goes for all other cases, when inflation is accompanied by, and therefore increases the devaluation of national currencies. In contrast, this assertion would be unfair if inflation is accompanied by a revaluation and deflation - devaluation, or there is a simultaneous process of deflation and revaluation.

Clear that in all cases "countdown" is not excluded, but allowed feigned aberration numbers. For if, say, in 2003 inflation was 12%, then the estimated rate of increase in prices would be equal to 13.6%, not 12% as a situation was in reality. This is precisely the feigned aberration. Arguments of this kind can build a lot.

Step 7 . Determine whether the change score inflation, taking into account the devaluation and revaluation of the ruble in euros. If the quote of the ruble in euros rather than dollars, its devaluation will be fixed in 2003, a revaluation - in 2000 and then submitted the relevant assessment will undergo modification. Measure and form of this modification will be determined each time a specific share of a convertible ruble supply in the respective currencies and treated as a combined average devaluation or revaluation of the ruble. For this reason, the calculated and published estimates of inflation may also undergo a corresponding specifications. Differences in estimates of inflation, depending on its understanding of and adjustment to the devaluation and revaluation, as we see, in all cases considered so significant that they can not be ignored.

Can not be ignored

A similar pattern can be adjusted with inflation, the strengthening of bank interest rates or rising unemployment. It is easy to show that, given the now-covered components - in particular, the inflation caused by excessive growth of prices and tariffs on education, health, sports, transport and communication services, utilities, construction and real estate, brokerage, etc. - The estimates of inflation can and should be significantly adjusted upwards.

In the context of these considerations naturally raises the question: Can the published estimates of inflation continue to leave without taking supplements and are not adjusted?

Our answer is clear: evidence of significant differences between estimated and actual estimates of inflation requires serious analysis. These facts are so far not adequately reflected in the estimates of inflation. Existing estimates, artificially low in some cases and by some of the causes and inflated in other cases for other reasons, require corrections and additions.

Disregard the submission of a fundamentally impossible because all the social indicators - pensions, nominal wages, other income, the consumption of goods and services, refinancing, quotes, securities, etc. - Should be adjusted based on refined values, which in absolute value, as a rule, more than is actually claimed indicators of inflation. Moreover, for each of these components should be assessed and to use their consumer price indices are significantly different in our country for, say, pensioners, middle class and rich.

Should be adjusted

Equating inflation to consumer price index, Goskomstat (March 2004 - Federal State Statistics Service), in fact, is doing. It is not clear why the index prices in the Russian Goskomstat publications and other reports referred to the inflation index, which he actually is not. And even more puzzling is why this index is computed on the fact differentiated by social groups, not published in the same format and, therefore, is not used as an important instrument of social regulation and social protection of pensioners and other poor people, which he the definition is and what it should be?

Why, for example, when approved by the Government of the Russian Federation differentiated subsistence minimum and clearly different structure (basket) of the consumption of the poor, middle class and rich in directional increase in the consumer price indexed as equally important (in 2003, on average, as noted , 12%). After all, the echo increase of the same consumer prices for pensioners, the poor, middle class and wealthy, not to mention those who are below the poverty line, is obviously quite different.

Situation can and must be corrected. Do not adjust the social indicators of the real inflation indices - means to continue to pick on crumbs of pensioners, the elderly, disadvantaged children, continue to mislead and kept in ignorance of all that enlightened society is not only unacceptable, but also immoral. All this must be done by law - not only because of the demands of democracy, but also because of consumer awareness and perception: people feel and react indignantly to the actual rise in prices, rather than the abstract for his rise in inflation.

Short, rising prices and a drop or increase in the ruble exchange rate should be measured and to provide more transparent and accurate profile of its respondents. Otherwise inevitable biased estimates of inflation and addressless, incompetent social events. A proper inflation, its indexes and all the wisdom of their calculation should be left to measure the degree of depreciation of money, for what it is, in fact, that's invented and what it is, strictly speaking, only has a direct relationship.